Our Methodology

How Pregnalyze calculates miscarriage risk

1. Evidence-based model

Pregnalyze is powered by 54 peer-reviewed clinical studies across obstetrics, gynecology, reproductive endocrinology, epidemiology, and perinatal medicine.

Our model uses:

  • Published gestational-age miscarriage curves
  • Odds ratios / risk ratios from clinical studies
  • Protective and risk-increasing modifiers
  • Validated ultrasound milestones

Pregnalyze does not diagnose or predict individual outcomes. It provides a structured, research-based estimate to help users understand how known factors influence miscarriage risk statistically.

2. How the risk estimate works

We combine three components:

Baseline miscarriage probability

Based on:

  • Gestational age
  • Whether a fetal heartbeat has been detected
  • Week-by-week statistical miscarriage curves

Risk-increasing factors

Examples include:

  • Maternal age
  • Previous pregnancy loss
  • BMI and metabolic factors
  • Autoimmune conditions
  • Infections
  • Certain medications
  • Substance exposures
  • Some uterine conditions
  • Paternal factors

Each factor applies a published odds ratio from clinical research.

Protective / risk-reducing factors

Examples:

  • Previous live birth
  • Fetal heartbeat detection
  • Some treated medical conditions

These data points statistically reduce estimated miscarriage probability based on the literature.

3. What Pregnalyze does not do

To ensure clarity and safety:

  • ❌ We do not provide medical advice or diagnosis
  • ❌ We do not replace a doctor, midwife, or ultrasound evaluation
  • ❌ We do not use AI/ML prediction models
  • ❌ We do not access personal medical records
  • ❌ We cannot predict individual outcomes
  • ❌ We cannot tell whether a pregnancy will continue or miscarry

Pregnalyze provides educational, research-based statistical estimates only.

4. How We Calculate Your Risk

Step-by-step process:

  1. Start with baseline risk for your gestational age
  2. Apply maternal age modifier (risk increases with age)
  3. Apply each relevant risk factor modifier using published coefficients
  4. Account for protective factors (previous births, treatments)
  5. Calculate confidence interval (statistical uncertainty range)
  6. Categorize final risk (very low to very high)

When to Contact Your Doctor

This calculator should NEVER delay you from seeking medical care. Contact your healthcare provider immediately if you experience:

  • Heavy bleeding (soaking through a pad in an hour)
  • Severe abdominal pain or cramping
  • Fever over 100.4°F (38°C)
  • Dizziness, fainting, or weakness
  • Any symptoms that concern you

When in doubt, call your doctor. They would rather you call than wait.